Kenya, heralding a new era?

The 2022 general election in Kenya has been strangely quiet. Past experiences informed observers that chaos was to be expected. In previous elections, thousands were beaten up, displaced or killed. This was not the case during the latest electoral exercise. Some analysts went as far as declaring that we were witnessing a paradigm shift in Kenya politics. Is this the case? Only future events will tell us.

In reality, there are other possible readings of the events. For one, Kenyans are suffering from campaign fatigue. Under the presidency of Daniel Tororoitich arap Moi, the country was in a constant bombardment of political rallies and superfluous declarations. No one could answer back and most of those words went unheard, anyway. Most people realized that the road-side politics adopted by the dictator was like a flag in the wind: it did not regard the truth of the matter, and it would always turn to Moi’s advantage.

After the infamous 2007 elections, and the beginning of a more democratic approach to local and national politics, legislators at all levels – from local councillors to Members of Parliament – have been on a constant political campaign. Often, political rallies have been used by MPs to kindle the fire of unrest. Some politicians, like eternal opposition representative Raila Odinga, routinely used his public appearances to push his supporters against the government of the day. Even MPs representing the governing majority focused their relationship with the grassroot in line with re-elections hopes. Policy was never considered an important matter to discuss with the base. It is enough to read the political manifestos of all the major parties to realize that the content is much of the same, and rarely it is taken into consideration in day-to-day policy-making anyway.

In the few months leading to the elections, Kenyans showed little interest in the calls to action by the major parties. In particular, the cooperation between President Uhuru Kenyatta and presidential hopeful Raila Odinga, found it difficult to gather a popular consensus in the public space. Used to attract huge crowds coalescing on ethnic grounds, both leaders found that they now appealed only to the older generations. The youth did not participate in their rallies, and certainly did not appear ready to support Raila, neither at the casting of ballots nor in the aftermath of the vote, when Raila called his supporter to demonstrate in the streets against the “steal” of the popular vote. He was then forced to follow the rule of the law and challenge electoral results through legal means. Kenya supreme court reaffirmation of William Ruto’s win contributed much to the peaceful democratic transition between Uhuru and Ruto, and hopefully laid the foundation for a true political shift in the country.

Here lays the second major change observed in Kenya. William Ruto, estranged vice-president running a campaign against the incumbent Uhuru, moved away from the traditional approach of ethnic politics. He shrewdly addressed the impoverished masses and the unhappy middle class across the ethnic divide. Those attending his events were mainly workers, the jobless and the ‘jua kali’ (hot sun in Swahili – i.e. informal self-employed usually poorly skilled people).

This novelty approach follows the debate about the dynasties. In the years prior to the last general election, many politicians and social analysts debated the presence and role of the major families in Kenya. These are the families of those who navigated the colonial era and the first years of independence to their advantage. The Kenyattas, Mois, Kibakis, Odingas, and others, capitalized on their social status, acquired large swathes of land and penetrated the economic fabric of the country. They also sent their people to occupy political posts at local and national level. Thus, they perpetuated their grip on power, be it political or financial.

Following their steps, many of the most educated people in Kenya placed themselves at the service of these potentates. During the colonial times, promising young men (women were not yet taken in consideration) were sent to either Alliance or Mango schools. These were church run institution of excellence. Reading their roll call of those years is like reading the list of the most influential people in Kenya. During those formative years, students formed a strong bond and later supported each other in their endeavours. It is not surprise that they kept a tight control on the economic and cultural life of the country.

Yet, Kenya changed much since independence. Poverty levels reduces sharply in the past years. If in the 1960s, Kenyans living below the poverty line were estimated at 64%, today most agencies claim that the percentage has dropped to 16%. A great economic improvement. Certainly, poverty remains a major issue to tackle. At the same time, one cannot blindly forget the success in reducing extreme poverty to a level comparable to that of many western countries. Yet, if the middle class grew, there remains the issue of land ownership; we could also add that there is a general problem with resources distribution.

Land ownership is a particular tricky issue. Kenyans value land as a major commodity. To possess land is felt as a basic requirement to assert oneself as a citizen in full right, especially ancestral land. Land access is also important, and often not considered by social analysts. For centuries, large highlands areas in central and southern Kenya were destined to pastures. Local herds, generally owned by Maasai, Pokot, Turkana, Samburu and other transhumant peoples, were free to criss-cross the country. Most of these areas are now part of large farms whose owners prevent shepherds from their grazing rights. In some cases, vast lands owned by expatriates are used as conservancies, for the benefit of few and the detriment of most.

Similar reasoning could be done about many economic activities in Kenya. Successful businesses can often be traced back to a few families, while creative entrepreneurs have to struggle to find the space and financing to grow. Wealth distribution remains a problem to be tackled.

Ruto shrewdly tapped in the experience of poverty and insufficient distribution of wealth, and his strategy worked. There remain to be seen if his government will implement any of the electoral promises he made. Marginalized Kenyans look at him as the embodiment of a warrior capable to fight for them. Ruto would be the transformative leader capable of placing them, not the rich and famous, at the centre of the political agenda. Not an easy dream to fulfil.

In the few months following the elections, Ruto has made a series of choices, and showed the will to stir the country on a new course. He is clearly keeping China at a distance, while trying to rekindle friendship with the West once again. Previous governments flocked to Beijing to beg for funds. China was attractive: it offered plenty of money pegged to what seemed a convenient refund policy and it did not ask questions about human rights and democratization processes. Of course, the grace period given to pay the debts back soon came to an end, and now China is presenting a bill hard to swallow. This is true in several African countries, where governments realized too late that – unable to pay their debts with hard cash – they are now to depart with strategic economic assets. In the case of Kenya, China suggested that instead of defaulting payment Kenya should let Chinese corporations to manage the port of Mombasa, which would de facto control the most important import/export route of the country. The takeover did not happen so far, but the time for retribution is in the air.

Appointments to key positions are unapologetically skewed towards his loyalist. As a yardstick, merit seems to have been forgotten. Ruto also appointed people to government positions oblivious to the fact that they face charges in court; while his allies have seen charges against them being dropped. This trend is a reminder of what happened about his lawsuit with the International Court of Justice. In that case, witnesses either retracted their statements or disappeared in mysterious circumstances.

The new president has also shown a hands-on attitude that leaves even his aids baffled. Besides refusing to delegate, Ruto has taken a dangerous route in taking decisions which disregard even the most basic rules of common sense. A case in point is the tentative to sell the national carrier – Kenya Airways – to Delta Airlines. Stakeholders were taken by surprise; nothing had signalled a possible switch of property in the near future. The process is still going on, and most probably it will not materialize. Yet, the fact that Ruto saw no incongruence in his decision is cause to worry. After all, no one wants a solo operator at the helm of a democratic government.

One of the many promises made during the campaign regarded aiding hustlers into transforming their businesses and give them a chance to set up proper facilities and systems. This would have been done through a Hustler Fund. Indeed, the fund was launched at the end of November 2022.  

The launching of the Fund is a sign that the transformational agenda targeting the poorest was not forgotten. The idea is to afford about 15 million Kenyans with credit and saving facilities. These are those citizens cut off from the formal credit network imposed by banks. The local credit market structure is strongly biased against those at the bottom of society; exactly those who could benefit most from a renewed participation in the economy of the country.

A recent survey found that only 20.7 per cent of micro and small enterprises use formal financial services and products as the main source of finance. A small group of farmers searches for bank’s loans and most cannot thrive because of the lack of capital to improve crops and expand in new agricultural land. If the Hustlers Fund will in fact support a transformation in agriculture – the main economic activity of the nation - the economic lift will be on an unprecedented scale.

The main innovation included in this grand plan is the incorporation of savings in the Fund. Those who register automatically set up an account with the government. For any amount borrowed the client’s account will be given 1.05% in savings, and 3.95% towards a pension fund. Also, the government will donate one shilling for every two saved by those who borrow from the Fund. This savings component shows that the innovation is premised on evidence-based policymaking.

Ruto spent most of his time as vice-president attending harambees (fund raising activities) for churches and church-oriented groups. He would go to any such activities if invited officially. At each event, he donated copiously, never revealing the source of such wealth. His entrance, by helicopter or by long motor arcades, was always theatrical and designed to impress the mind of rural folks.

Today, churches are called to pay homage to the king. Evangelical churches, more dependent on external revenues, gladly show support for the new president. Notably, self-styled bishop Mark Kariuki, of the Deliverance Church International, has become a regular visitor to State House. The Anglican and Catholic churches – traditionally sided with the opposition to centralised powers – seem still independent. Will they play along with the President, or will they rise to be “the conscience of the Nation”? Only time will tell.

The key point remains that of a real social and political shift. If a social shift will indeed occur, then political plans ought to change also. Yet, this may not happen in line with the goals of those who initiated the social transformation. If political – and financial – decisions will prevail, we shall witness more of the same. The change will only be of those who will wield power.

President Ruto cuts a polished figure and his mannerism is courteous and respectful of all. There remains to be seen if, below the polished surface, there is a will to initiate a true social transformation. One that would put the ordinary citizen at the centre of Kenya’s choices for the future.